Put on your frilly best and step on that red carpet people because it's Oscar time again!!! I am constantly torn between wanting the Oscars to be a relevant accurate historical record of the best movies made of the year & knowing in my core that "awards for art" are inherently absurd. But no need to let some intellectual conflict prevent us from participating in a tradition unlike any other; OSCAR PREDICTIONS! We will be using my preferred format of Who WILL Win and Who SHOULD Win (mostly just to double my chances of later claiming 'I got it right').(a rare back to back parenthetical; I'll also sneak in a movie review of something coming out this weekend at the end) So here, we, go...
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Mahershala Ali - The Green Book. The only thing bringing this movie up into the stratosphere of awards season is this performance. A flawed movie which feels like it's already been made 50x and doesn't really offer much beyond what you would expect, but Mahershala is as riveting as always and he makes seeing the movie worth it.
Should Win: Mahershala Ali - The Green Book - This seems like the most obvious category to me, lets see how the Academy messes it up.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Amy Adams - Vice - Not really sure why I feel this, but I get the sense that the Academy loves Amy Adams; as they should, she's incredibly talented. I just don't feel like this performance or movie is worthy of taking the trophy from .....
Should Win: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk - An emotional bulldozer of a performance and movie. Mainly rooting for this because is it's best shot at some awards love, and it deserves some.
LEAD ACTOR:
Will Win - Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody - I get it, a 2 hour Queen music video with a guy who kinda looks like Freddie Mercury and really sounds like him leaves most movie goers with a pleasant feeling leaving the theater after seeing this movie. But I can't stress this enough Academy, DO. NOT. DO. THIS.
Should Win - Bradley Cooper - With all do respect to Christian Bale's ability to change his body shape at will and to completely dissolve into whatever role he is playing, this award belongs to the man who turned his face into a catchers mitt and learned to play the guitar while directing his own performance. A perfectly good movie and possibly the best version of a film that's been remade multiple times, which is no small feat.
LEAD ACTRESS:
Will Win: Olivia Colman - The Favourite - The Academy loves a British period piece with frilly costumes and hilarious accents, and Olivia is perfect in this. I don't think The Favourite will strike out on getting something and this seems like the most likely award for it to win. Olivia is perfect in this, have I said that yet? Seriously, she's hilarious and deserves this.... I'm just rooting for something else.
Should Win: Lady Gaga - A Star is Born - I NEED ALL THE GAGA & COOPER SHIP IT MEMES! And if both of them win for lead acting I feel like it may actually happen.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win - Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman - I know Alfonso Cuaron is a deserving favorite (and a heavy favorite at that) but this feels way too much like a reboot of Scorsase winning for The Departed. More of a career achievement nod than a recognition of a directors best work (neither are the best versions of what these all time great directors can do).
Should Win _ Alfonso Cuaron - Roma - This is more of a hedge pick than anything else, I'm perfectly fine with either of these two winning the award.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Roma - Will be a first on 2 different levels; first foreign language film & first film from a streaming service to win this award. Movie is masterfully made & a beautiful story. It will get dismissed by some as getting elevated because of cultural narratives, but it really is the only stand out film in an otherwise mediocre group of nominations (especially you Bohemian Rhapsody, GET OUT OF MY BEST PICTURE CATEGORY)
Should Win: First Man - Really unlikely for this to happen since it wasn't even nominated. Next on my list would be Spiderman Into the Spiderverse, also not nominated (the Academy are cowards). Of the nominated films, I think it would be great if Black Panther won. GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT, COWARDS.
I saw How to Train Your Dragon: Hidden World this week and my quick review is I don't think it will be in the Oscar conversation next year, but if your kids enjoyed the first two installments of this trilogy I would almost guarantee they would enjoy this one. Solid execution and good mix of action and comedy, it's fun even if it's not as good as the first two. Thanks for reading!